Crude’s Second Act: Oil Extends Its Rally as Yields Spike and Risk Assets Retreat
Here’s where the key indicators sit versus their own history, plus the best and worst movers across companies and industries — and the risk and growth factors that may sit behind them. We don’t tell you what to do. We just show you what the data says, then close each section with a quick Read: the possible drivers, and what they could mean.
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01 · COMPANIES
Movers Above $10B Market Cap
▲ LEADERS
1 WEEK
- Datadog Inc — +5.80%
- Fair Isaac Corporation — +5.46%
- Marvell Technology Group Ltd — +5.13%
YEAR TO DATE
- BHP Group Limited — +47.78%
- Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz — +37.20%
- Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. — +28.12%
YEAR ON YEAR
- JB Hunt Transport Services Inc — +92.01%
- Okta Inc — +81.98%
- SK Telecom Co Ltd ADR — +74.14%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include positive EBITDA margin, revenue growth from last year, and positive profit margin.
▼ LAGGARDS
1 WEEK
- Caseys General Stores Inc — -16.91%
- TPG Inc — -7.10%
- Medline Inc. Class A Common Stock — -6.94%
YEAR TO DATE
- CRH PLC ADR — -29.74%
- Amrize Ltd — -26.80%
- Globus Medical — -15.97%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Fiserv, Inc. — -62.97%
- Zscaler Inc — -42.25%
- Fidelity National Information Services Inc — -41.66%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include adverse capital markets access, macroeconomic decline or recession, and competition intensity & availability of substitutes.
THE READ
Possible drivers: Datadog leads the week (+5.80%) alongside Fair Isaac and Marvell Technology, a mix of software and semiconductor names rather than a single-sector story. BHP Group’s YTD lead (+47.78%) lines up with this week’s continued strength in materials and mining, while JB Hunt’s YoY standout (+92.01%) points to transportation holding up well over the longer window. Caseys General Stores’ sharp weekly drop (-16.91%) stands out against an otherwise moderate laggard list.
What it could mean: BHP Group’s YTD leadership alongside this week’s Drilling & Mining and Refining & Smelting industry gains (below) suggests materials strength is broadening out, not just an energy story. Fiserv and Zscaler’s steep YoY declines, both fintech/security-adjacent names, are worth watching for a common thread in payments and cybersecurity spend.
02 · COMPANIES
Movers Below $10B Market Cap
▲ LEADERS
1 WEEK
- GameSquare Holdings Inc. — +19.32%
- MaxLinear Inc — +13.98%
- Fastly, Inc. Class A Common Stock — +10.30%
YEAR TO DATE
- Rackspace Technology Inc — +237.53%
- Avita Medical Ltd — +189.79%
- Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc — +144.84%
YEAR ON YEAR
- BUUU Group Limited — +496.42%
- MaxLinear Inc — +362.60%
- Relay Therapeutics Inc — +354.42%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include operating margin expansion from last year, return on invested capital expansion, and revenue growth from last year.
▼ LAGGARDS
1 WEEK
- ServiceTitan, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -34.30%
- RF Acquisition Corp II Ordinary Shares — -22.89%
- Cabaletta Bio Inc — -16.14%
YEAR TO DATE
- Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.50%
- Sionna Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock — -81.25%
- Verra Mobility Corp — -74.19%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.50%
- Verra Mobility Corp — -85.82%
- American Bitcoin Corp — -83.66%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include change in customer demand or preferences, competition intensity & availability of substitutes, and macroeconomic decline or recession.
THE READ
What it could mean: MaxLinear’s continued presence across multiple leaderboards makes it one of the more durable small-cap growth stories we’re tracking. Verra Mobility’s repeated appearance as a laggard across windows, now spanning several weeks in our data, looks less like noise and more like a sustained decline worth monitoring.
Possible drivers: MaxLinear shows up as both a 1-week leader (+13.98%) and the second-strongest YoY performer (+362.60%), a repeat appearance that continues a trend we flagged in prior weeks. GameSquare Holdings tops the week (+19.32%), while Suja Life’s identical YTD and YoY loss (-97.50%) signals the bulk of its decline happened in a single stretch rather than gradually. Verra Mobility remains a laggard across both YTD and YoY windows once again.
03 · INDUSTRIES
Industry Performance
Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.
▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING
1 WEEK
- Jewelry & Ornaments — +17.05%
- Glass — +9.14%
- Drilling & Mining — +3.99%
YEAR TO DATE
- Admin & Legal — +72.53%
- Data Management — +64.08%
- Refining & Smelting — +63.82%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Refining & Smelting — +112.48%
- Glass — +99.64%
- Data Management — +78.38%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include product or service characteristics & qualities, macroeconomic stability & growth, and strong reputation & brand.
▼ LOWEST PERFORMING
1 WEEK
- Transportation (passenger) — -6.76%
- Children — -6.25%
- Logistics — -5.20%
YEAR TO DATE
- Children — -28.71%
- Shipyards — -22.42%
- Exercise & Fitness — -21.83%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Digital & Cryptocurrency — -53.00%
- Recycling — -52.23%
- Children — -48.85%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include competition intensity & availability of substitutes, change in customer demand or preferences, and macroeconomic decline or recession.
THE READ
Possible drivers: Refining & Smelting holds onto the top spot in both YTD (+63.82%) and YoY (+112.48%) windows for a second straight week, while Glass joins it at the top of the YoY table (+99.64%) — both lining up with this week’s continued crude oil strength. Jewelry & Ornaments’ sudden 1-week surge (+17.05%) is a new name at the top and worth watching for follow-through. Children continues to show up as a laggard across all three windows, now a multi-week pattern.
What it could mean: Refining & Smelting’s second consecutive week at the top of the YTD and YoY tables, alongside crude oil’s continued climb (below), reinforces that energy-linked industries are driving a real trend rather than a one-week spike. Children’s persistent weakness across 1-week, YTD, and YoY windows alike is one of the more consistent signals in this week’s data.
04 · INDICATORS
Where the Big Levels Sit
Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.
| Indicator | 1W % | Last | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y Treasury | +3.86 | 4.97 | High |
| S&P 500 | -0.80 | 7,656.98 | Very High |
| Hang Seng | -3.30 | 24,805.63 | High |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | +8.45 | 104.42 | High |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | -0.08 | 99.10 | Low |
| Gold | -0.90 | 4,390.00 | Very High |
| Bitcoin | -3.14 | 77,310.35 | High |
THE READ
Possible drivers: The US 10Y Treasury jumped sharply this week (+3.86%), pushing yields to 4.97% and further above their 5-year average. Crude Oil (Brent) extended last week’s rally with another strong gain (+8.45%), while risk assets broadly pulled back — the S&P 500 (-0.80%), Hang Seng (-3.30%), and Bitcoin (-3.14%) all declined, and Gold eased slightly (-0.90%) after recent strength.
What it could mean: A sharp yield spike alongside declines across equities, Hang Seng, and Bitcoin is a classic risk-off signature — rising discount rates tend to pressure valuations across risk assets simultaneously. Combined with crude’s second straight week of gains, this week’s data leans toward an inflation-and-rates story rather than a growth scare, though it’s worth watching whether equities stabilize next week or the selloff broadens.
05 · WEEKLY MOVERS
Biggest Indicator Swings
▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK
- Switzerland 10Y · Average — +30.53%
- Oat · Average — +10.84%
- Crude Oil (WTI) · High — +9.70%
- Crude Oil (Brent) · High — +8.45%
- Turkey 10Y · High — +8.43%
▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK
- Coffee · High — -12.34%
- Lean Hogs · Low — -9.66%
- Palladium · Average — -5.40%
- Natural Gas · Low — -5.21%
- Cocoa · High — -4.44%
THE READ
Possible drivers: Both crude oil benchmarks posted strong back-to-back weekly gains — WTI (+9.70%) and Brent (+8.45%) — confirming last week’s rally wasn’t a one-off. Sovereign bond yields moved sharply higher across multiple countries, with Switzerland’s 10-year up 30.53% and Turkey’s up 8.43%. Coffee logged its third consecutive weekly decline (-12.34%, following prior drops of -12.86% and -15.31%), extending one of the longer-running trends in this dataset.
What it could mean: Crude’s second straight week of strong gains on both benchmarks, together with the Refining & Smelting industry’s continued lead above, points to a genuine multi-week energy trend rather than a single spike. Coffee’s third consecutive weekly loss is now a well-established slide worth flagging for anyone tracking the agricultural complex.
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Market Trend Monday is provided for information only and reflects what the data shows. It is not investment advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are drawn from Capnote’s data and methodology and may differ from other sources. Always do your own research.