Yields Keep Climbing, Stocks Shrug: Gold Slips as the 10-Year Hits 5.16%
Here’s where the key indicators sit versus their own history, plus the best and worst movers across companies and industries — and the risk and growth factors that may sit behind them. We don’t tell you what to do. We just show you what the data says, then close each section with a quick Read: the possible drivers, and what they could mean.
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01 · COMPANIES
Movers Above $10B Market Cap
▲ LEADERS
1 WEEK
- On Holding Ltd — +10.40%
- Lattice Semiconductor Corporation — +9.86%
- Datadog Inc — +9.38%
YEAR TO DATE
- NetApp Inc — +90.73%
- Ternium SA ADR — +44.68%
- Healthpeak Properties Inc — +31.08%
YEAR ON YEAR
- ArcelorMittal SA ADR — +98.62%
- Grupo Cibest S.A. — +90.30%
- APA Corporation — +80.77%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include positive EBITDA margin, revenue growth from last year, and positive profit margin.
▼ LAGGARDS
1 WEEK
- Charter Communications Inc — -9.02%
- Godaddy Inc — -8.01%
- Summit Therapeutics PLC — -7.84%
YEAR TO DATE
- CRH PLC ADR — -32.98%
- EchoStar Corporation — -20.31%
- Public Service Enterprise Group Inc — -15.63%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Intuit Inc — -59.75%
- Coupang LLC — -57.23%
- Boston Scientific Corp — -55.71%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include high leverage, change in customer demand or preferences, and macroeconomic decline or recession.
THE READ
Possible drivers: The weekly leaderboard is a mix of consumer, semiconductor, and software names — On Holding (+10.40%), Lattice Semiconductor (+9.86%), and Datadog (+9.38%) — with no single-sector story behind it. NetApp’s YTD lead (+90.73%) is the largest YTD gain we’ve seen at the top of this bracket in recent weeks. Two steelmakers also stand out: Ternium on the YTD board and ArcelorMittal on the YoY board.
What it could mean: Steel and energy names (ArcelorMittal, Ternium, APA) sitting on the leaderboards lines up with the materials and Refining & Smelting strength showing up in the industry data below. Software isn’t moving as one block either: Datadog led the week while GoDaddy lagged, and Intuit sits on the YoY laggard board, so this looks more like stock-by-stock dispersion than a sector-wide move.
02 · COMPANIES
Movers Below $10B Market Cap
▲ LEADERS
1 WEEK
- GRAIL, LLC — +15.97%
- Alpha Teknova Inc — +14.63%
- Butterfly Network Inc — +13.02%
YEAR TO DATE
- MaxLinear Inc — +402.03%
- Entravision Communications — +154.31%
- Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc — +154.16%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Erasca Inc — +688.68%
- Alpha Tau Medical Ltd — +249.21%
- Victoria’s Secret & Co — +223.29%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include revenue growth from last year, operating margin expansion from last year, and net margin expansion from last year.
▼ LAGGARDS
1 WEEK
- Compass Therapeutics Inc. — -38.42%
- Alkami Technology Inc — -23.68%
- Apnimed, Inc. Common Stock — -22.45%
YEAR TO DATE
- Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.82%
- Compass Therapeutics Inc. — -78.63%
- Verra Mobility Corp — -76.61%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.82%
- Verra Mobility Corp — -87.15%
- SL Science Holding Limited Ordinary Shares — -84.26%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include adverse capital markets access, regulatory actions or policy changes, and change in customer demand or preferences.
THE READ
Possible drivers: Healthcare and life-science names take all three weekly leader spots (GRAIL, Alpha Teknova, Butterfly Network), while the weekly laggard list is also biotech-heavy (Compass Therapeutics, Apnimed). Compass Therapeutics’ -38.42% week was large enough to push it to second-worst on the YTD board (-78.63%). Erasca’s +688.68% YoY gain is the largest we’ve seen in this bracket in recent weeks, and MaxLinear tops the YTD board at +402.03%.
What it could mean: Healthcare showing up at both ends of the small-cap board points to wide dispersion rather than a sector trend — outcomes for individual names are diverging sharply. Verra Mobility and Suja Life remain repeat laggards across both YTD and YoY windows, which looks like a sustained decline rather than a one-week move.
03 · INDUSTRIES
Industry Performance
Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.
▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING
1 WEEK
- Cannabis — +9.04%
- Space Logistics — +8.71%
- Children — +5.10%
YEAR TO DATE
- Data Management — +67.46%
- Computer Hardware — +58.40%
- Refining & Smelting — +57.73%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Refining & Smelting — +104.58%
- Glass — +83.05%
- Data Management — +82.06%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include macroeconomic stability & growth, product or service characteristics & qualities, and capital markets access.
▼ LOWEST PERFORMING
1 WEEK
- Recycling — -4.26%
- Government Contractor — -3.89%
- Pets — -3.63%
YEAR TO DATE
- Children — -28.00%
- Shipyards — -26.02%
- Exercise & Fitness — -21.52%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Recycling — -57.03%
- Children — -48.35%
- Digital & Cryptocurrency — -46.61%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include competition intensity & availability of substitutes, adverse capital markets access, and macroeconomic decline or recession.
THE READ
Possible drivers: Data Management takes over the top YTD spot (+67.46%), while Refining & Smelting slips to third on the YTD board (+57.73%, down from +63.44% last week) and eases on the YoY board (+104.58%, down from +111.99%) — though it still holds the top YoY spot. Children appears on this week’s leaderboard (+5.10%) despite remaining a laggard on both the YTD and YoY boards. Recycling leads the weekly laggards and the YoY laggards at once.
What it could mean: Refining & Smelting’s cooling comes in a week when heating oil and gasoline both fell by roughly 9% (see the movers below), which may be related. Children’s weekly gain against a deeply negative YTD and YoY backdrop is a divergence worth watching for follow-through, while Recycling’s weakness across both the weekly and YoY windows is one of the more consistent signals in this week’s data.
04 · INDICATORS
Where the Big Levels Sit
Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.
| Indicator | 1W % | Last | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y Treasury | +3.36 | 5.16 | High |
| S&P 500 | +1.21 | 7,743.41 | Very High |
| Hang Seng | -0.97 | 24,510.09 | High |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | +0.81 | 104.71 | High |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | +0.81 | 101.04 | Average |
| Gold | -2.36 | 4,320.50 | High |
| Bitcoin | +3.87 | 83,937.33 | High |
THE READ
Possible drivers: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.36% to 5.16%, its fourth straight weekly gain and now 1.61 standard deviations above its 5-year average. Even so, the S&P 500 climbed 1.21% to 7,743.41. Gold fell 2.36% and slipped from Very High to High, the US Dollar Index firmed 0.81% to 101.04, and Bitcoin gained another 3.87%, its second straight weekly rise. Brent held near $104.71, above $100 for a third straight week.
What it could mean: Stocks rising while yields keep climbing and the dollar firms is an unusual mix, and gold’s slide fits with that combination of higher yields and a stronger dollar. The question worth watching is how long equities can keep absorbing yields at this level. Bitcoin’s continued strength, meanwhile, is diverging from the pullback in gold, the other asset often viewed as an alternative store of value.
05 · WEEKLY MOVERS
Biggest Indicator Swings
▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK
- Switzerland 10Y · Average — +16.71%
- Natural Gas · Low — +11.64%
- Turkey 10Y · High — +9.30%
- Orange Juice · Low — +7.45%
- Cocoa · Average — +5.18%
▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK
- Heating Oil · Very High — -9.45%
- Gasoline · High — -9.38%
- Milk · Low — -5.75%
- Coffee · Average — -5.58%
- Nigeria 10Y · Average — -4.65%
THE READ
Possible drivers: Heating Oil (-9.45%) and Gasoline (-9.38%) both fell sharply even though Brent crude held roughly flat, suggesting refined products moved independently of crude this week. Heating Oil remains at a Very High level despite the drop. Coffee logged its fifth consecutive weekly decline (-5.58%) and slipped from a High to an Average level, while Cocoa bounced +5.18% after last week’s -10.64% drop.
What it could mean: Fuel prices cooling while crude holds steady is worth watching, as it could reflect easing demand or supply for refined products specifically. Coffee’s fifth straight loss, and its move down to an Average level, marks a clear shift for a commodity that had been sitting at High levels just a week ago. Cocoa’s rebound is the first sign of a bounce after a rough stretch in the softs.
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Market Trend Monday is provided for information only and reflects what the data shows. It is not investment advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are drawn from Capnote’s data and methodology and may differ from other sources. Always do your own research.