Yields Pull Back, Stocks Climb: the S&P 500 Hits a New High as Brent Tops $104
Here’s where the key indicators sit versus their own history, plus the best and worst movers across companies and industries — and the risk and growth factors that may sit behind them. We don’t tell you what to do. We just show you what the data says, then close each section with a quick Read: the possible drivers, and what they could mean.
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01 · COMPANIES
Movers Above $10B Market Cap
▲ LEADERS
1 WEEK
- Ciena Corp — +14.57%
- CoStar Group Inc — +7.77%
- Dollar Tree Inc — +5.76%
YEAR TO DATE
- Corpay Inc — +32.67%
- Williams-Sonoma Inc — +29.30%
- SEI Investments Company — +26.13%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Synnex Corporation — +76.82%
- Quanta Services Inc — +64.77%
- Globalfoundries Inc — +37.32%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include revenue growth from last year, positive EBITDA margin, and positive profit margin.
▼ LAGGARDS
1 WEEK
- FormFactor Inc — -6.47%
- Curtiss-Wright Corporation — -5.86%
- Moog Inc — -5.42%
YEAR TO DATE
- Zoetis Inc — -40.11%
- Ryanair Holdings PLC ADR — -23.84%
- Deckers Outdoor Corporation — -22.71%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Fidelity National Information Services Inc — -47.82%
- Axon Enterprise Inc. — -41.93%
- Equifax Inc — -36.37%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include supply chain disruptions, intellectual property protection risks, and competition intensity & availability of substitutes.
THE READ
Possible drivers: CoStar Group jumps back onto the weekly leaderboard (+7.77%) after sitting among the worst YoY laggards for several straight weeks — a notable reversal. Ciena led the week by a wide margin (+14.57%). On the laggard side, three defense and aerospace-adjacent names (Curtiss-Wright, Moog, FormFactor) cluster together on the weekly list.
What it could mean: CoStar’s jump back to a weekly leader, after being a repeat YoY laggard in prior weeks, is worth watching for whether it marks a turning point or just a one-week bounce. The aerospace/defense names showing up together as weekly laggards is a cluster worth tracking for a possible sector-level pullback rather than isolated moves.
02 · COMPANIES
Movers Below $10B Market Cap
▲ LEADERS
1 WEEK
- Rezolute Inc — +15.71%
- Evolent Health Inc — +14.68%
- Apogee Enterprises Inc — +14.48%
YEAR TO DATE
- Rackspace Technology Inc — +301.08%
- Avita Medical Ltd — +272.22%
- Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc — +144.84%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Andersen Group Inc. — +259.72%
- Penguin Solutions, Inc. — +245.91%
- Oruka Therapeutics, Inc. — +219.11%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include positive EBITDA margin, return on invested capital expansion, and low leverage.
▼ LAGGARDS
1 WEEK
- ArriVent BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock — -40.25%
- 10X Genomics Inc — -18.61%
- Aehr Test Systems — -16.64%
YEAR TO DATE
- Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.21%
- Verra Mobility Corp — -79.79%
- BOXABL Inc. — -77.79%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.21%
- Verra Mobility Corp — -87.60%
- SL Science Holding Limited Ordinary Shares — -85.68%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition intensity & availability of substitutes, change in customer demand or preferences, and return on invested capital contraction.
THE READ
Possible drivers: Rackspace Technology continues its extended run at the top of the YTD board, now at +301.08%, among the largest YTD gains we’ve tracked in this bracket all year. ArriVent BioPharma’s -40.25% weekly drop is the steepest single-week move in this bracket this week by a wide margin. BOXABL moves onto the YTD laggard list (-77.79%) after appearing on the weekly laggard board last week.
What it could mean: BOXABL’s slide from a weekly laggard to a YTD laggard in consecutive weeks suggests its decline is compounding rather than a one-off. Verra Mobility and Suja Life remain repeat laggards across both YTD and YoY windows for yet another week, now a well-established multi-week pattern.
03 · INDUSTRIES
Industry Performance
Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.
▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING
1 WEEK
- Refining & Smelting — +37.92%
- Internet Technologies — +5.33%
- Pets — +4.96%
YEAR TO DATE
- Computer Hardware — +68.77%
- Data Management — +54.67%
- Refining & Smelting — +52.01%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Refining & Smelting — +85.43%
- Glass — +83.24%
- Data Management — +62.83%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include strong reputation & brand, product or service characteristics & qualities, and capital markets access.
▼ LOWEST PERFORMING
1 WEEK
- Digital & Cryptocurrency — -4.02%
- Energy Storage — -3.48%
- Leasing & Rentals — -3.38%
YEAR TO DATE
- Shipyards — -28.43%
- Children — -27.65%
- Exercise & Fitness — -21.78%
YEAR ON YEAR
- Children — -43.41%
- Government Contractor — -37.98%
- Recycling — -36.84%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include adverse capital markets access, reputation or brand decline and impairment, and macroeconomic decline or recession.
THE READ
Possible drivers: Refining & Smelting posted a sharp +37.92% weekly gain, by far the largest 1-week industry move this week, while also holding the top YoY spot (+85.43%). Computer Hardware overtakes Data Management for the top YTD spot (+68.77% vs +54.67%). Children’s YTD loss eased slightly to -27.65% from -28.00% last week, though it remains a laggard across all three windows.
What it could mean: Refining & Smelting’s outsized weekly jump, alongside Brent crude’s rise to $104.43 this week, points to renewed energy-sector momentum after a few weeks of cooling. Children’s slight YTD improvement is worth watching for whether the multi-week decline is finally leveling off, though it’s too early to call a turn.
04 · INDICATORS
Where the Big Levels Sit
Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.
| Indicator | 1W % | Last | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y Treasury | -0.87 | 5.24 | High |
| S&P 500 | +1.15 | 7,811.54 | Very High |
| Hang Seng | +1.00 | 24,211.35 | High |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | +2.13 | 104.43 | High |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | +0.29 | 102.23 | Average |
| Gold | +1.39 | 4,220.30 | High |
| Bitcoin | -2.31 | 82,552.67 | High |
THE READ
Possible drivers: The US 10-year Treasury yield eased slightly this week (-0.87%) to 5.24%, its first pullback after five straight weekly gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.15% to a fresh level of $7,811.54, and Hang Seng gained 1.00%. Gold rebounded 1.39% after two straight weekly declines, while Bitcoin fell 2.31%, its first weekly drop after three consecutive gains.
What it could mean: Yields finally cooling after five weeks straight coincides with gold’s rebound and equities pushing higher, consistent with the rates-pressure pattern we’ve tracked over recent weeks working in reverse. Bitcoin’s pullback, right as gold recovers, continues the divergence between the two assets rather than resolving it.
05 · WEEKLY MOVERS
Biggest Indicator Swings
▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK
- Orange Juice · Low — +8.51%
- Turkey 10Y · High — +8.43%
- Milk · Low — +7.63%
- Switzerland 10Y · Average — +6.27%
- Natural Gas · Low — +5.57%
▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK
- Brazil 10Y · Average — -12.16%
- ETH/USD · Average — -6.84%
- Baltic Dry · High — -5.56%
- Gasoline · High — -5.32%
- Corn · Low — -3.62%
THE READ
Possible drivers: Switzerland 10Y swung +6.27% this week, a third consecutive wild move in that series after last week’s -19.08% and the week before’s +16.71% — a pattern worth flagging as a possible data quirk rather than a market signal. Brazil 10Y posted the week’s sharpest single move at -12.16%. Ethereum fell 6.84%, moving opposite to Bitcoin’s own decline this week, an unusual split between the two largest cryptocurrencies.
What it could mean: Switzerland 10Y’s third straight outsized swing strengthens the case that this is a data or reporting artifact rather than a genuine market move, and it’s worth checking against the source before citing it as a trend. ETH and BTC both falling this week, despite usually moving together, suggests the crypto pullback is broad-based rather than Bitcoin-specific.
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Market Trend Monday is provided for information only and reflects what the data shows. It is not investment advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are drawn from Capnote’s data and methodology and may differ from other sources. Always do your own research.