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01 · COMPANIES

Movers Above $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

• Ciena Corp — +14.57%
• CoStar Group Inc — +7.77%
• Dollar Tree Inc — +5.76%

YEAR TO DATE

• Corpay Inc — +32.67%
• Williams-Sonoma Inc — +29.30%
• SEI Investments Company — +26.13%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Synnex Corporation — +76.82%
• Quanta Services Inc — +64.77%
• Globalfoundries Inc — +37.32%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include revenue growth from last year, positive EBITDA margin, and positive profit margin.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

• FormFactor Inc — -6.47%
• Curtiss-Wright Corporation — -5.86%
• Moog Inc — -5.42%

YEAR TO DATE

• Zoetis Inc — -40.11%
• Ryanair Holdings PLC ADR — -23.84%
• Deckers Outdoor Corporation — -22.71%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Fidelity National Information Services Inc — -47.82%
• Axon Enterprise Inc. — -41.93%
• Equifax Inc — -36.37%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include supply chain disruptions, intellectual property protection risks, and competition intensity & availability of substitutes.

THE READ

Possible drivers: CoStar Group jumps back onto the weekly leaderboard (+7.77%) after sitting among the worst YoY laggards for several straight weeks — a notable reversal. Ciena led the week by a wide margin (+14.57%). On the laggard side, three defense and aerospace-adjacent names (Curtiss-Wright, Moog, FormFactor) cluster together on the weekly list.

What it could mean: CoStar’s jump back to a weekly leader, after being a repeat YoY laggard in prior weeks, is worth watching for whether it marks a turning point or just a one-week bounce. The aerospace/defense names showing up together as weekly laggards is a cluster worth tracking for a possible sector-level pullback rather than isolated moves.

02 · COMPANIES

Movers Below $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

• Rezolute Inc — +15.71%
• Evolent Health Inc — +14.68%
• Apogee Enterprises Inc — +14.48%

YEAR TO DATE

• Rackspace Technology Inc — +301.08%
• Avita Medical Ltd — +272.22%
• Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc — +144.84%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Andersen Group Inc. — +259.72%
• Penguin Solutions, Inc. — +245.91%
• Oruka Therapeutics, Inc. — +219.11%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include positive EBITDA margin, return on invested capital expansion, and low leverage.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

• ArriVent BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock — -40.25%
• 10X Genomics Inc — -18.61%
• Aehr Test Systems — -16.64%

YEAR TO DATE

• Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.21%
• Verra Mobility Corp — -79.79%
• BOXABL Inc. — -77.79%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.21%
• Verra Mobility Corp — -87.60%
• SL Science Holding Limited Ordinary Shares — -85.68%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition intensity & availability of substitutes, change in customer demand or preferences, and return on invested capital contraction.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Rackspace Technology continues its extended run at the top of the YTD board, now at +301.08%, among the largest YTD gains we’ve tracked in this bracket all year. ArriVent BioPharma’s -40.25% weekly drop is the steepest single-week move in this bracket this week by a wide margin. BOXABL moves onto the YTD laggard list (-77.79%) after appearing on the weekly laggard board last week.

What it could mean: BOXABL’s slide from a weekly laggard to a YTD laggard in consecutive weeks suggests its decline is compounding rather than a one-off. Verra Mobility and Suja Life remain repeat laggards across both YTD and YoY windows for yet another week, now a well-established multi-week pattern.

03 · INDUSTRIES

Industry Performance

Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.

▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

• Refining & Smelting — +37.92%
• Internet Technologies — +5.33%
• Pets — +4.96%

YEAR TO DATE

• Computer Hardware — +68.77%
• Data Management — +54.67%
• Refining & Smelting — +52.01%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Refining & Smelting — +85.43%
• Glass — +83.24%
• Data Management — +62.83%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include strong reputation & brand, product or service characteristics & qualities, and capital markets access.

▼ LOWEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

• Digital & Cryptocurrency — -4.02%
• Energy Storage — -3.48%
• Leasing & Rentals — -3.38%

YEAR TO DATE

• Shipyards — -28.43%
• Children — -27.65%
• Exercise & Fitness — -21.78%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Children — -43.41%
• Government Contractor — -37.98%
• Recycling — -36.84%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include adverse capital markets access, reputation or brand decline and impairment, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Refining & Smelting posted a sharp +37.92% weekly gain, by far the largest 1-week industry move this week, while also holding the top YoY spot (+85.43%). Computer Hardware overtakes Data Management for the top YTD spot (+68.77% vs +54.67%). Children’s YTD loss eased slightly to -27.65% from -28.00% last week, though it remains a laggard across all three windows.

What it could mean: Refining & Smelting’s outsized weekly jump, alongside Brent crude’s rise to $104.43 this week, points to renewed energy-sector momentum after a few weeks of cooling. Children’s slight YTD improvement is worth watching for whether the multi-week decline is finally leveling off, though it’s too early to call a turn.

04 · INDICATORS

Where the Big Levels Sit

Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.

THE READ

Possible drivers: The US 10-year Treasury yield eased slightly this week (-0.87%) to 5.24%, its first pullback after five straight weekly gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.15% to a fresh level of $7,811.54, and Hang Seng gained 1.00%. Gold rebounded 1.39% after two straight weekly declines, while Bitcoin fell 2.31%, its first weekly drop after three consecutive gains.

What it could mean: Yields finally cooling after five weeks straight coincides with gold’s rebound and equities pushing higher, consistent with the rates-pressure pattern we’ve tracked over recent weeks working in reverse. Bitcoin’s pullback, right as gold recovers, continues the divergence between the two assets rather than resolving it.

05 · WEEKLY MOVERS

Biggest Indicator Swings

▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK

• Orange Juice · Low — +8.51%
• Turkey 10Y · High — +8.43%
• Milk · Low — +7.63%
• Switzerland 10Y · Average — +6.27%
• Natural Gas · Low — +5.57%

▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK

• Brazil 10Y · Average — -12.16%
• ETH/USD · Average — -6.84%
• Baltic Dry · High — -5.56%
• Gasoline · High — -5.32%
• Corn · Low — -3.62%

THE READ

Possible drivers: Switzerland 10Y swung +6.27% this week, a third consecutive wild move in that series after last week’s -19.08% and the week before’s +16.71% — a pattern worth flagging as a possible data quirk rather than a market signal. Brazil 10Y posted the week’s sharpest single move at -12.16%. Ethereum fell 6.84%, moving opposite to Bitcoin’s own decline this week, an unusual split between the two largest cryptocurrencies.

What it could mean: Switzerland 10Y’s third straight outsized swing strengthens the case that this is a data or reporting artifact rather than a genuine market move, and it’s worth checking against the source before citing it as a trend. ETH and BTC both falling this week, despite usually moving together, suggests the crypto pullback is broad-based rather than Bitcoin-specific.

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Market Trend Monday is provided for information only and reflects what the data shows. It is not investment advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are drawn from Capnote’s data and methodology and may differ from other sources. Always do your own research.

The post Yields Pull Back, Stocks Climb: the S&P 500 Hits a New High as Brent Tops $104 first appeared on Capnote.

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01 · COMPANIES

Movers Above $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

• Synopsys Inc — +17.46%
• Summit Therapeutics PLC — +8.33%
• Itau Unibanco Banco Holding SA — +6.76%

YEAR TO DATE

• The J. M. Smucker Company — +25.98%
• Biogen Inc — +22.67%
• Unum Group — +17.52%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Texas Instruments Incorporated — +64.92%
• Aramark Holdings — +44.86%
• Archer-Daniels-Midland Company — +40.33%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include revenue growth from last year, consistent revenue growth across recent years, and diversified business.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

• AGNC Investment Corp. — -5.39%
• Schlumberger NV — -5.38%
• Ast Spacemobile Inc — -4.77%

YEAR TO DATE

• Charter Communications Inc — -47.37%
• Li Auto Inc — -38.58%
• Weyerhaeuser Company — -20.73%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Boston Scientific Corp — -55.65%
• Fidelity National Information Services Inc — -49.13%
• Pinterest Inc — -39.00%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include regulatory actions or policy changes, adverse capital markets access, and competition intensity & availability of substitutes.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Synopsys led the week by a wide margin (+17.46%), well ahead of Summit Therapeutics and Itau Unibanco. Charter Communications’ YTD loss deepened sharply (-47.37%, from -39.17% last week), making it the worst YTD performer in this bracket for a second straight week. Boston Scientific remains the worst YoY performer for another week running.

What it could mean: Charter Communications’ accelerating YTD decline, now down nearly 8 points in a single week, is one of the sharper single-company moves we’ve tracked recently and worth watching closely. Boston Scientific’s continued presence at the top of the YoY laggard board, now a multi-week pattern, keeps pointing to medical devices as a durable weak spot this cycle.

02 · COMPANIES

Movers Below $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

• Pacific Biosciences of California — +46.30%
• Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings — +22.66%
• ServiceTitan, Inc. Class A Common Stock — +13.33%

YEAR TO DATE

• Penguin Solutions, Inc. — +199.38%
• Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. — +168.52%
• Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc — +144.84%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Bandwidth Inc — +303.07%
• Anterix Inc — +277.44%
• Andersen Group Inc. — +253.61%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include diversified business, return on invested capital expansion, and low leverage.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

• Liquidia Technologies Inc — -58.92%
• BOXABL Inc. — -18.86%
• GeneDx Holdings Corp. — -17.42%

YEAR TO DATE

• Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.38%
• Verra Mobility Corp — -78.55%
• EyePoint, Inc — -74.88%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.38%
• Verra Mobility Corp — -86.84%
• SL Science Holding Limited Ordinary Shares — -83.88%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition intensity & availability of substitutes, change in customer demand or preferences, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

THE READ

Possible drivers: ServiceTitan returns to the weekly leaderboard (+13.33%) after appearing as a 1-week leader five weeks ago. Liquidia Technologies’ sharp weekly drop (-58.92%) is the single largest 1-week decline we’ve tracked in this bracket recently. Verra Mobility and Suja Life remain repeat laggards across both YTD and YoY windows for yet another week.

What it could mean: Verra Mobility’s now-persistent presence on the laggard board, spanning several weeks of our data, looks like a sustained decline rather than noise. Liquidia’s outsized single-week loss is worth flagging as an outlier given nothing else in this week’s data moved anywhere near that magnitude.

03 · INDUSTRIES

Industry Performance

Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.

▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

• Consulting — +9.85%
• Water Transportation — +4.82%
• Accounting — +3.63%

YEAR TO DATE

• Data Management — +65.63%
• Computer Hardware — +57.71%
• Refining & Smelting — +53.41%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Refining & Smelting — +87.14%
• Data Management — +74.38%
• Glass — +72.85%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include macroeconomic stability & growth, strong reputation & brand, and capital markets access.

▼ LOWEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

• Cannabis — -11.67%
• Space Logistics — -5.76%
• Digital & Cryptocurrency — -5.09%

YEAR TO DATE

• Children — -31.02%
• Shipyards — -26.71%
• Exercise & Fitness — -21.10%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Children — -46.05%
• Government Contractor — -40.72%
• Recycling — -35.51%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include adverse capital markets access, reputation or brand decline and impairment, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Data Management holds the top YTD spot for a second straight week (+65.63%), while Refining & Smelting continues cooling on both the YTD board (+53.41%, down from +57.73%) and the YoY board (+87.14%, down from +104.58%) — though it still leads YoY. Children remains a laggard across all three windows for yet another week, and now posts its worst YoY reading yet (-46.05%).

What it could mean: Refining & Smelting’s third straight week of easing YTD and YoY gains suggests the energy-linked rally that drove much of September is losing steam, even as Brent itself only eased modestly this week. Children’s deepening YoY loss, alongside its continued presence on the YTD and 1-week laggard lists, is one of the more consistent multi-week patterns in this dataset.

04 · INDICATORS

Where the Big Levels Sit

Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.

THE READ

Possible drivers: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose again this week (+2.28%) to 5.28%, its fifth consecutive weekly gain. Gold fell 3.45% to $4,172.10, its second straight weekly decline after also dropping last week, while the S&P 500 (-0.27%) and Hang Seng (-2.19%) both pulled back. Bitcoin posted a modest gain (+0.55%), its third straight weekly rise, and the dollar firmed slightly (+0.94%).

What it could mean: Gold’s back-to-back weekly declines alongside a steadily climbing 10-year yield fit a clear pattern: rising real rates are pressuring the metal that typically benefits when rates fall. Bitcoin’s third consecutive weekly gain, even as gold continues to slide, is the clearest divergence between the two assets we’ve tracked yet. Equities holding up relatively well despite five straight weeks of rising yields remains the bigger open question.

05 · WEEKLY MOVERS

Biggest Indicator Swings

▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK

• Sugar · Average — +13.77%
• Turkey 10Y · High — +8.67%
• Coffee · High — +4.36%
• France 10Y · Very High — +2.96%
• Chile 10Y · High — +2.48%

▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK

• Switzerland 10Y · Average — -19.08%
• Orange Juice · Low — -9.17%
• Baltic Dry · High — -8.35%
• Palladium · Low — -7.18%
• Silver · High — -6.20%

THE READ

Possible drivers: Switzerland’s 10-year yield swung -19.08% this week, the largest single-week move across any indicator in recent memory, following a +16.71% gain just last week — a sharp reversal in the same series. Coffee bounced back +4.36% after five straight weekly declines. Silver fell 6.20%, moving in the same direction as gold this week, while Palladium also dropped sharply (-7.18%).

What it could mean: Switzerland 10Y’s whipsaw move (+16.71% last week, -19.08% this week) is large enough to be an outlier worth double-checking against the source data rather than reading as a market signal. Silver and Gold both falling together this week, alongside Palladium’s drop, points to a broader pullback across precious and industrial metals rather than a gold-specific story.

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Market Trend Monday is provided for information only and reflects what the data shows. It is not investment advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are drawn from Capnote’s data and methodology and may differ from other sources. Always do your own research.

The post Gold and Silver Slide as the 10-Year Yield Hits a Fresh High of 5.28% first appeared on Capnote.

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01 · COMPANIES

Movers Above $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

• On Holding Ltd — +10.40%
• Lattice Semiconductor Corporation — +9.86%
• Datadog Inc — +9.38%

YEAR TO DATE

• NetApp Inc — +90.73%
• Ternium SA ADR — +44.68%
• Healthpeak Properties Inc — +31.08%

YEAR ON YEAR

• ArcelorMittal SA ADR — +98.62%
• Grupo Cibest S.A. — +90.30%
• APA Corporation — +80.77%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include positive EBITDA margin, revenue growth from last year, and positive profit margin.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

• Charter Communications Inc — -9.02%
• Godaddy Inc — -8.01%
• Summit Therapeutics PLC — -7.84%

YEAR TO DATE

• CRH PLC ADR — -32.98%
• EchoStar Corporation — -20.31%
• Public Service Enterprise Group Inc — -15.63%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Intuit Inc — -59.75%
• Coupang LLC — -57.23%
• Boston Scientific Corp — -55.71%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include high leverage, change in customer demand or preferences, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

THE READ

Possible drivers: The weekly leaderboard is a mix of consumer, semiconductor, and software names — On Holding (+10.40%), Lattice Semiconductor (+9.86%), and Datadog (+9.38%) — with no single-sector story behind it. NetApp’s YTD lead (+90.73%) is the largest YTD gain we’ve seen at the top of this bracket in recent weeks. Two steelmakers also stand out: Ternium on the YTD board and ArcelorMittal on the YoY board.

What it could mean: Steel and energy names (ArcelorMittal, Ternium, APA) sitting on the leaderboards lines up with the materials and Refining & Smelting strength showing up in the industry data below. Software isn’t moving as one block either: Datadog led the week while GoDaddy lagged, and Intuit sits on the YoY laggard board, so this looks more like stock-by-stock dispersion than a sector-wide move.

02 · COMPANIES

Movers Below $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

• GRAIL, LLC — +15.97%
• Alpha Teknova Inc — +14.63%
• Butterfly Network Inc — +13.02%

YEAR TO DATE

• MaxLinear Inc — +402.03%
• Entravision Communications — +154.31%
• Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc — +154.16%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Erasca Inc — +688.68%
• Alpha Tau Medical Ltd — +249.21%
• Victoria’s Secret & Co — +223.29%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include revenue growth from last year, operating margin expansion from last year, and net margin expansion from last year.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

• Compass Therapeutics Inc. — -38.42%
• Alkami Technology Inc — -23.68%
• Apnimed, Inc. Common Stock — -22.45%

YEAR TO DATE

• Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.82%
• Compass Therapeutics Inc. — -78.63%
• Verra Mobility Corp — -76.61%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.82%
• Verra Mobility Corp — -87.15%
• SL Science Holding Limited Ordinary Shares — -84.26%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include adverse capital markets access, regulatory actions or policy changes, and change in customer demand or preferences.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Healthcare and life-science names take all three weekly leader spots (GRAIL, Alpha Teknova, Butterfly Network), while the weekly laggard list is also biotech-heavy (Compass Therapeutics, Apnimed). Compass Therapeutics’ -38.42% week was large enough to push it to second-worst on the YTD board (-78.63%). Erasca’s +688.68% YoY gain is the largest we’ve seen in this bracket in recent weeks, and MaxLinear tops the YTD board at +402.03%.

What it could mean: Healthcare showing up at both ends of the small-cap board points to wide dispersion rather than a sector trend — outcomes for individual names are diverging sharply. Verra Mobility and Suja Life remain repeat laggards across both YTD and YoY windows, which looks like a sustained decline rather than a one-week move.

03 · INDUSTRIES

Industry Performance

Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.

▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

• Cannabis — +9.04%
• Space Logistics — +8.71%
• Children — +5.10%

YEAR TO DATE

• Data Management — +67.46%
• Computer Hardware — +58.40%
• Refining & Smelting — +57.73%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Refining & Smelting — +104.58%
• Glass — +83.05%
• Data Management — +82.06%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include macroeconomic stability & growth, product or service characteristics & qualities, and capital markets access.

▼ LOWEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

• Recycling — -4.26%
• Government Contractor — -3.89%
• Pets — -3.63%

YEAR TO DATE

• Children — -28.00%
• Shipyards — -26.02%
• Exercise & Fitness — -21.52%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Recycling — -57.03%
• Children — -48.35%
• Digital & Cryptocurrency — -46.61%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include competition intensity & availability of substitutes, adverse capital markets access, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Data Management takes over the top YTD spot (+67.46%), while Refining & Smelting slips to third on the YTD board (+57.73%, down from +63.44% last week) and eases on the YoY board (+104.58%, down from +111.99%) — though it still holds the top YoY spot. Children appears on this week’s leaderboard (+5.10%) despite remaining a laggard on both the YTD and YoY boards. Recycling leads the weekly laggards and the YoY laggards at once.

What it could mean: Refining & Smelting’s cooling comes in a week when heating oil and gasoline both fell by roughly 9% (see the movers below), which may be related. Children’s weekly gain against a deeply negative YTD and YoY backdrop is a divergence worth watching for follow-through, while Recycling’s weakness across both the weekly and YoY windows is one of the more consistent signals in this week’s data.

04 · INDICATORS

Where the Big Levels Sit

Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.

THE READ

Possible drivers: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.36% to 5.16%, its fourth straight weekly gain and now 1.61 standard deviations above its 5-year average. Even so, the S&P 500 climbed 1.21% to 7,743.41. Gold fell 2.36% and slipped from Very High to High, the US Dollar Index firmed 0.81% to 101.04, and Bitcoin gained another 3.87%, its second straight weekly rise. Brent held near $104.71, above $100 for a third straight week.

What it could mean: Stocks rising while yields keep climbing and the dollar firms is an unusual mix, and gold’s slide fits with that combination of higher yields and a stronger dollar. The question worth watching is how long equities can keep absorbing yields at this level. Bitcoin’s continued strength, meanwhile, is diverging from the pullback in gold, the other asset often viewed as an alternative store of value.

05 · WEEKLY MOVERS

Biggest Indicator Swings

▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK

• Switzerland 10Y · Average — +16.71%
• Natural Gas · Low — +11.64%
• Turkey 10Y · High — +9.30%
• Orange Juice · Low — +7.45%
• Cocoa · Average — +5.18%

▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK

• Heating Oil · Very High — -9.45%
• Gasoline · High — -9.38%
• Milk · Low — -5.75%
• Coffee · Average — -5.58%
• Nigeria 10Y · Average — -4.65%

THE READ

Possible drivers: Heating Oil (-9.45%) and Gasoline (-9.38%) both fell sharply even though Brent crude held roughly flat, suggesting refined products moved independently of crude this week. Heating Oil remains at a Very High level despite the drop. Coffee logged its fifth consecutive weekly decline (-5.58%) and slipped from a High to an Average level, while Cocoa bounced +5.18% after last week’s -10.64% drop.

What it could mean: Fuel prices cooling while crude holds steady is worth watching, as it could reflect easing demand or supply for refined products specifically. Coffee’s fifth straight loss, and its move down to an Average level, marks a clear shift for a commodity that had been sitting at High levels just a week ago. Cocoa’s rebound is the first sign of a bounce after a rough stretch in the softs.

Reply with your read on where we sit in the macro cycle. Featured replies earn some goodies.

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Market Trend Monday is provided for information only and reflects what the data shows. It is not investment advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are drawn from Capnote’s data and methodology and may differ from other sources. Always do your own research.

The post Yields Keep Climbing, Stocks Shrug: Gold Slips as the 10-Year Hits 5.16% first appeared on Capnote.

01 · COMPANIES

Movers Above $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

• Semtech Corporation — +25.81%
• Pershing Square Inc. — +24.67%
• Generac Holdings Inc — +17.33%

YEAR TO DATE

• Halozyme Therapeutics Inc — +60.71%
• The J. M. Smucker Company — +30.26%
• Anheuser Busch Inbev NV ADR — +23.44%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Keysight Technologies Inc — +88.47%
• WESCO International Inc — +61.24%
• Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA ADR B — +60.68%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include positive EBITDA margin, revenue growth from last year, and positive profit margin.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

• HubSpot Inc — -13.76%
• DraftKings Inc — -12.09%
• Toast Inc — -10.66%

YEAR TO DATE

• Charter Communications Inc — -39.17%
• NVR Inc — -14.63%
• Ferrovial SE — -14.22%

YEAR ON YEAR

• CoStar Group Inc — -66.73%
• Roblox Corp — -64.63%
• Fiserv, Inc. — -64.08%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition intensity & availability of substitutes, change in customer demand or preferences, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Semtech and Pershing Square both posted strong single-week gains (+25.81% and +24.67%) without an obvious shared sector driver, suggesting company-specific catalysts rather than a broad move. Halozyme’s YTD lead (+60.71%) continues a healthcare/biotech theme we’ve seen build over recent weeks. On the downside, HubSpot’s weekly drop (-13.76%) leads a software-heavy laggard list alongside DraftKings and Toast.

What it could mean: CoStar Group’s continued presence at the top of the YoY laggard board, now spanning multiple weeks of our data, keeps pointing to real estate data services as one of this cycle’s more durable weak spots. The software names showing up together as weekly laggards (HubSpot, DraftKings, Toast) is worth watching for whether it’s a sector rotation or just a rough week for a few names.

02 · COMPANIES

Movers Below $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

• MMTEC Inc — +45.67%
• LuxExperience B.V. — +37.89%
• Securitize Corp. — +32.28%

YEAR TO DATE

• Rackspace Technology Inc — +295.87%
• Avita Medical Ltd — +214.32%
• Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc — +144.84%

YEAR ON YEAR

• FormFactor Inc — +226.66%
• National Energy Services Reunited Corp Ordinary Shares — +217.95%
• Forum Energy Technologies Inc — +191.13%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include revenue growth from last year, net margin expansion from last year, and positive profit margin.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

• Merlin, Inc. — -34.56%
• Alignment Healthcare LLC — -33.78%
• Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc — -32.23%

YEAR TO DATE

• Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.69%
• Sionna Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock — -85.06%
• Verra Mobility Corp — -75.92%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.69%
• Verra Mobility Corp — -86.77%
• SL Science Holding Limited Ordinary Shares — -83.69%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include adverse capital markets access, change in customer demand or preferences, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Rackspace Technology remains the runaway YTD leader in this bracket (+295.87%), continuing its multi-week run at the top. Securitize Corp.’s appearance among weekly leaders (+32.28%) is notable given crypto and digital-asset strength elsewhere in this week’s data. Verra Mobility remains a repeat laggard across both YTD and YoY windows for yet another week.

What it could mean: Verra Mobility’s now-persistent presence on the laggard board across multiple weeks looks less like a one-off and more like a sustained decline. Securitize’s strong week, alongside Bitcoin’s rally in the indicators below, hints that digital-asset-adjacent names may be catching a broader tailwind this week.

03 · INDUSTRIES

Industry Performance

Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.

▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

• Digital & Cryptocurrency — +11.12%
• Scientific Services & Tools — +5.59%
• Electrical Products — +5.52%

YEAR TO DATE

• Refining & Smelting — +63.44%
• Computer Hardware — +59.58%
• Data Management — +59.37%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Refining & Smelting — +111.99%
• Glass — +78.03%
• Data Management — +73.25%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include macroeconomic stability & growth, product or service characteristics & qualities, and capital markets access.

▼ LOWEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

• Media — -7.27%
• Government Contractor — -5.75%
• Exercise & Fitness — -5.12%

YEAR TO DATE

• Children — -28.91%
• Exercise & Fitness — -25.54%
• Shipyards — -25.21%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Recycling — -57.23%
• Children — -49.00%
• Digital & Cryptocurrency — -47.50%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include macroeconomic decline or recession, competition intensity & availability of substitutes, and adverse capital markets access.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Digital & Cryptocurrency tops the weekly industry board (+11.12%), a sharp reversal for an industry that still sits among the worst YoY performers (-47.50%). Refining & Smelting holds its YTD and YoY leadership for a third straight week, keeping the energy-linked theme intact even as crude itself cooled off this week. Children remains a laggard across both YTD and YoY windows once again.

What it could mean: Digital & Cryptocurrency’s strong single week against a deeply negative YoY backdrop is exactly the kind of divergence worth watching closely — it could mark the start of a recovery, or simply a bounce inside a longer downtrend. Refining & Smelting’s continued dominance across YTD and YoY, even as crude eased slightly this week, suggests the industry’s strength is now broader than the commodity price alone.

04 · INDICATORS

Where the Big Levels Sit

Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.

THE READ

Possible drivers: After two straight weeks of sharp moves, most major indicators held roughly steady this week — the S&P 500 (-0.08%), Hang Seng (-0.22%), and Crude Oil Brent (-0.71%) all posted only modest changes. Bitcoin was the standout, jumping 4.83%, while the US Dollar Index firmed slightly (+1.11%) after recent weakness.

What it could mean: A quieter week across equities and bonds, following back-to-back weeks of yield spikes and oil rallies, could suggest markets are digesting recent moves rather than starting a new trend. Bitcoin’s standalone strength, alongside Digital & Cryptocurrency’s industry-level rebound above, is the clearest signal in this week’s data and worth tracking for follow-through next week.

05 · WEEKLY MOVERS

Biggest Indicator Swings

▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK

• Oat · Average — +14.19%
• Turkey 10Y · High — +10.67%
• Gasoline · High — +6.66%
• BTC/USD · High — +4.83%
• ETH/USD · Average — +3.84%

▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK

• Cocoa · Average — -10.64%
• Coffee · High — -6.09%
• Lean Hogs · Low — -5.71%
• Cotton · Average — -5.71%
• Malaysia 10Y · Average — -5.14%

THE READ

Possible drivers: Both Bitcoin (+4.83%) and Ethereum (+3.84%) show up among this week’s biggest gainers, reinforcing the crypto strength seen elsewhere in this week’s data. Coffee logged its fourth consecutive weekly decline (-6.09%, following prior drops of -12.86%, -15.31%, and -12.34%), one of the longest-running trends we’ve tracked this quarter.

What it could mean: Crypto’s appearance across three separate parts of this week’s data — the industry table, the indicator table, and the weekly movers list — makes it the clearest single theme of the week. Coffee’s fourth straight weekly loss is now a well-established slide rather than a blip, worth flagging for anyone tracking the agricultural complex.

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The post Crypto Catches a Bid: Digital Assets Lead the Week as Oil Finally Cools first appeared on Capnote.

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01 · COMPANIES

Movers Above $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

• Datadog Inc — +5.80%
• Fair Isaac Corporation — +5.46%
• Marvell Technology Group Ltd — +5.13%

YEAR TO DATE

• BHP Group Limited — +47.78%
• Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz — +37.20%
• Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. — +28.12%

YEAR ON YEAR

• JB Hunt Transport Services Inc — +92.01%
• Okta Inc — +81.98%
• SK Telecom Co Ltd ADR — +74.14%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include positive EBITDA margin, revenue growth from last year, and positive profit margin.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

• Caseys General Stores Inc — -16.91%
• TPG Inc — -7.10%
• Medline Inc. Class A Common Stock — -6.94%

YEAR TO DATE

• CRH PLC ADR — -29.74%
• Amrize Ltd — -26.80%
• Globus Medical — -15.97%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Fiserv, Inc. — -62.97%
• Zscaler Inc — -42.25%
• Fidelity National Information Services Inc — -41.66%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include adverse capital markets access, macroeconomic decline or recession, and competition intensity & availability of substitutes.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Datadog leads the week (+5.80%) alongside Fair Isaac and Marvell Technology, a mix of software and semiconductor names rather than a single-sector story. BHP Group’s YTD lead (+47.78%) lines up with this week’s continued strength in materials and mining, while JB Hunt’s YoY standout (+92.01%) points to transportation holding up well over the longer window. Caseys General Stores’ sharp weekly drop (-16.91%) stands out against an otherwise moderate laggard list.

What it could mean: BHP Group’s YTD leadership alongside this week’s Drilling & Mining and Refining & Smelting industry gains (below) suggests materials strength is broadening out, not just an energy story. Fiserv and Zscaler’s steep YoY declines, both fintech/security-adjacent names, are worth watching for a common thread in payments and cybersecurity spend.

02 · COMPANIES

Movers Below $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

• GameSquare Holdings Inc. — +19.32%
• MaxLinear Inc — +13.98%
• Fastly, Inc. Class A Common Stock — +10.30%

YEAR TO DATE

• Rackspace Technology Inc — +237.53%
• Avita Medical Ltd — +189.79%
• Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc — +144.84%

YEAR ON YEAR

• BUUU Group Limited — +496.42%
• MaxLinear Inc — +362.60%
• Relay Therapeutics Inc — +354.42%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include operating margin expansion from last year, return on invested capital expansion, and revenue growth from last year.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

• ServiceTitan, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -34.30%
• RF Acquisition Corp II Ordinary Shares — -22.89%
• Cabaletta Bio Inc — -16.14%

YEAR TO DATE

• Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.50%
• Sionna Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock — -81.25%
• Verra Mobility Corp — -74.19%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock — -97.50%
• Verra Mobility Corp — -85.82%
• American Bitcoin Corp — -83.66%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include change in customer demand or preferences, competition intensity & availability of substitutes, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

THE READ

What it could mean: MaxLinear’s continued presence across multiple leaderboards makes it one of the more durable small-cap growth stories we’re tracking. Verra Mobility’s repeated appearance as a laggard across windows, now spanning several weeks in our data, looks less like noise and more like a sustained decline worth monitoring.

Possible drivers: MaxLinear shows up as both a 1-week leader (+13.98%) and the second-strongest YoY performer (+362.60%), a repeat appearance that continues a trend we flagged in prior weeks. GameSquare Holdings tops the week (+19.32%), while Suja Life’s identical YTD and YoY loss (-97.50%) signals the bulk of its decline happened in a single stretch rather than gradually. Verra Mobility remains a laggard across both YTD and YoY windows once again.

03 · INDUSTRIES

Industry Performance

Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.

▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

• Jewelry & Ornaments — +17.05%
• Glass — +9.14%
• Drilling & Mining — +3.99%

YEAR TO DATE

• Admin & Legal — +72.53%
• Data Management — +64.08%
• Refining & Smelting — +63.82%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Refining & Smelting — +112.48%
• Glass — +99.64%
• Data Management — +78.38%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include product or service characteristics & qualities, macroeconomic stability & growth, and strong reputation & brand.

▼ LOWEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

• Transportation (passenger) — -6.76%
• Children — -6.25%
• Logistics — -5.20%

YEAR TO DATE

• Children — -28.71%
• Shipyards — -22.42%
• Exercise & Fitness — -21.83%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Digital & Cryptocurrency — -53.00%
• Recycling — -52.23%
• Children — -48.85%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include competition intensity & availability of substitutes, change in customer demand or preferences, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Refining & Smelting holds onto the top spot in both YTD (+63.82%) and YoY (+112.48%) windows for a second straight week, while Glass joins it at the top of the YoY table (+99.64%) — both lining up with this week’s continued crude oil strength. Jewelry & Ornaments’ sudden 1-week surge (+17.05%) is a new name at the top and worth watching for follow-through. Children continues to show up as a laggard across all three windows, now a multi-week pattern.

What it could mean: Refining & Smelting’s second consecutive week at the top of the YTD and YoY tables, alongside crude oil’s continued climb (below), reinforces that energy-linked industries are driving a real trend rather than a one-week spike. Children’s persistent weakness across 1-week, YTD, and YoY windows alike is one of the more consistent signals in this week’s data.

04 · INDICATORS

Where the Big Levels Sit

Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.

THE READ

Possible drivers: The US 10Y Treasury jumped sharply this week (+3.86%), pushing yields to 4.97% and further above their 5-year average. Crude Oil (Brent) extended last week’s rally with another strong gain (+8.45%), while risk assets broadly pulled back — the S&P 500 (-0.80%), Hang Seng (-3.30%), and Bitcoin (-3.14%) all declined, and Gold eased slightly (-0.90%) after recent strength.

What it could mean: A sharp yield spike alongside declines across equities, Hang Seng, and Bitcoin is a classic risk-off signature — rising discount rates tend to pressure valuations across risk assets simultaneously. Combined with crude’s second straight week of gains, this week’s data leans toward an inflation-and-rates story rather than a growth scare, though it’s worth watching whether equities stabilize next week or the selloff broadens.

05 · WEEKLY MOVERS

Biggest Indicator Swings

▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK

• Switzerland 10Y · Average — +30.53%
• Oat · Average — +10.84%
• Crude Oil (WTI) · High — +9.70%
• Crude Oil (Brent) · High — +8.45%
• Turkey 10Y · High — +8.43%

▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK

• Coffee · High — -12.34%
• Lean Hogs · Low — -9.66%
• Palladium · Average — -5.40%
• Natural Gas · Low — -5.21%
• Cocoa · High — -4.44%

THE READ

Possible drivers: Both crude oil benchmarks posted strong back-to-back weekly gains — WTI (+9.70%) and Brent (+8.45%) — confirming last week’s rally wasn’t a one-off. Sovereign bond yields moved sharply higher across multiple countries, with Switzerland’s 10-year up 30.53% and Turkey’s up 8.43%. Coffee logged its third consecutive weekly decline (-12.34%, following prior drops of -12.86% and -15.31%), extending one of the longer-running trends in this dataset.

What it could mean: Crude’s second straight week of strong gains on both benchmarks, together with the Refining & Smelting industry’s continued lead above, points to a genuine multi-week energy trend rather than a single spike. Coffee’s third consecutive weekly loss is now a well-established slide worth flagging for anyone tracking the agricultural complex.

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The post Crude’s Second Act: Oil Extends Its Rally as Yields Spike and Risk Assets Retreat first appeared on Capnote.

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01 · COMPANIES

Movers Above $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

● Exelixis Inc  —  +8.22%

● Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd  —  +7.72%

● Deere & Company  —  +6.21%

YEAR TO DATE

● APA Corporation  —  +72.58%

● Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras  —  +69.22%

● Datadog Inc  —  +60.16%

YEAR ON YEAR

● DigitalOcean Holdings Inc  —  +250.33%

● Ecopetrol SA ADR  —  +99.56%

● Targa Resources Inc  —  +77.62%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include revenue growth over last year, positive EBITDA margin, and positive profit margin.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

● SharkNinja, Inc.  —  -8.95%

● SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock  —  -7.67%

● Crowdstrike Holdings Inc  —  -6.86%

YEAR TO DATE

● CoStar Group Inc  —  -53.89%

● Applovin Corp  —  -48.75%

● Insulet Corporation  —  -48.41%

YEAR ON YEAR

● CoStar Group Inc  —  -65.99%

● Insulet Corporation  —  -57.51%

● Zoetis Inc  —  -50.53%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, reputation or brand decline, and leverage increase.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Exelixis leads the week (+8.22%) alongside Galaxy Digital Holdings and Deere & Company. Energy names dominate the YTD leaderboard — APA Corporation, Petrobras, and Datadog — while DigitalOcean’s YoY standout (+250.33%) towers over energy names Ecopetrol and Targa Resources. Laggards this week skew consumer and cybersecurity (SharkNinja, SailPoint, Crowdstrike), while CoStar Group and Insulet Corporation continue their now-familiar slide across both YTD and YoY.

What it could mean: Energy names showing up repeatedly across the YTD leaderboard (APA, Petrobras) lines up with this week’s sharp crude oil rally — worth watching whether that connection holds. CoStar and Insulet’s repeated laggard status, now spanning several weeks, continues to point to real-estate data and medical devices as persistent weak spots this cycle.

02 · COMPANIES

Movers Below $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

● Titan Machinery Inc  —  +30.96%

● Limbach Holdings Inc  —  +17.51%

● Braskem SA Class A  —  +15.94%

YEAR TO DATE

● Aehr Test Systems  —  +293.64%

● 10X Genomics Inc  —  +281.90%

● MaxLinear Inc  —  +237.03%

YEAR ON YEAR

● MaxLinear Inc  —  +300.73%

● Roma Green Finance Limited Ordinary Shares  —  +244.39%

● Maravai Lifesciences Holdings Inc  —  +215.06%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include leverage decrease, low leverage, and positive EBITDA margin.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

● Rezolve AI Limited Ordinary Shares  —  -21.55%

● Rapid7 Inc  —  -16.70%

● Funko Inc  —  -15.63%

YEAR TO DATE

● Verra Mobility Corp  —  -82.08%

● Newegg Commerce Inc  —  -79.22%

● Anbio Biotechnology Class A Ordinary Shares  —  -76.76%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Anbio Biotechnology Class A Ordinary Shares  —  -87.02%

● Verra Mobility Corp  —  -83.67%

● Maquia Capital Acquisition Corp  —  -81.06%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include changing customer demand, competition & substitutes, and reputation or brand decline.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Titan Machinery leads the week (+30.96%), while MaxLinear shows up as both a YTD leader (+237.03%) and the top YoY performer (+300.73%) — a rare double appearance suggesting durable strength rather than a single spike. Verra Mobility remains at the bottom of both the YTD (-82.08%) and YoY (-83.67%) laggard lists for a fifth straight week, alongside Anbio Biotechnology’s steep declines in both windows.

What it could mean: MaxLinear’s consistency across YTD and YoY makes it one of the more reliable growth stories in this dataset right now. Verra Mobility’s fifth consecutive week as a top laggard across both windows is no longer a blip — it’s the most persistent decline we’ve tracked this quarter.

03 · INDUSTRIES

Industry Performance

Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.

▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

● Refining & Smelting  —  +34.94%

● Education  —  +11.50%

● Agriculture  —  +5.40%

YEAR TO DATE

● Data Management  —  +68.51%

● Refining & Smelting  —  +58.69%

● Accounting  —  +56.55%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Refining & Smelting  —  +109.85%

● Space Logistics  —  +92.17%

● Data Management  —  +87.13%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include macroeconomic stability & growth, product/service characteristics, and capital markets access.

▼ LOWEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

● Children  —  -8.86%

● Gaming  —  -7.03%

● Commodities  —  -5.68%

YEAR TO DATE

● Energy Storage  —  -30.52%

● Digital & Cryptocurrency  —  -23.80%

● Intermediaries  —  -22.15%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Recycling  —  -56.31%

● Children  —  -44.12%

● Government Contractor  —  -40.94%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include macroeconomic decline or recession, adverse capital markets access, and reputation or brand decline.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Refining & Smelting is this week’s standout, topping all three windows — 1-week (+34.94%), YTD (+58.69%), and YoY (+109.85%) — a sharp change from Operator and Glass, which had led the YTD/YoY tables for over a month and are now absent from the top three. This lines up closely with the sharp jump in crude oil prices this week (Brent +8.77%, WTI +9.40%). On the downside, Children continues its extended slide, now appearing as a laggard in both the 1-week and YoY windows.

What it could mean: Refining & Smelting’s sudden dominance across every window, right alongside this week’s crude oil surge, looks like a direct read-through from energy prices to the industries that process them — worth watching whether it holds if oil prices ease. Operator and Glass’s disappearance from the leaderboard after weeks at the top is worth flagging as a possible turning point rather than routine noise.

04 · INDICATORS

Where the Big Levels Sit

Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Crude Oil (Brent) jumped 8.77% this week and moved back to a High historical level (0.85 standard deviations above trend), reversing last week’s pullback. The US 10Y Treasury also climbed (+1.53%), while Gold stayed essentially flat (-0.02%) after two weeks of larger swings. Bitcoin continued its steady climb (+2.37%), remaining at a High level.

What it could mean: Crude’s sharp reversal this week, paired with the Refining & Smelting industry surge above, suggests energy is back in focus after a quieter previous week. Gold’s flat week after recent volatility could mean it’s consolidating at its current Very High level rather than reversing outright — worth watching for direction next week.

05 · WEEKLY MOVERS

Biggest Indicator Swings

▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK

● Orange Juice · Low  —  +16.62%

● Coal · Average  —  +13.19%

● Baltic Dry · High  —  +9.48%

● Crude Oil (WTI) · High  —  +9.40%

● Crude Oil (Brent) · High  —  +8.77%

▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK

● Coffee · High  —  -15.31%

● Gasoline · High  —  -8.31%

● Cocoa · High  —  -7.11%

● Wheat · Low  —  -6.38%

● Cotton · Average  —  -5.42%

THE READ

Possible drivers: Both crude oil benchmarks — WTI (+9.40%) and Brent (+8.77%) — posted strong gains together, alongside Orange Juice and Coal. Coffee extended its decline for a second straight week (-15.31%, following last week’s -12.86%), and the rest of the agricultural complex broadly softened too — Cocoa, Wheat, and Cotton all fell.

What it could mean: The simultaneous jump in both crude oil benchmarks confirms energy strength isn’t isolated to one contract, and lines up directly with this week’s Refining & Smelting industry surge. Coffee’s second consecutive steep weekly decline is now a two-week trend rather than a one-off move, and worth watching for whether it continues.

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Market Trend Monday is provided for information only and reflects what the data shows. It is not investment advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are drawn from Capnote’s data and methodology and may differ from other sources. Always do your own research.

The post Oil’s Back: Crude Surges 9% and Ends a Month-Long Industry Streak first appeared on Capnote.

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01 · COMPANIES

Movers Above $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

● TTM Technologies Inc  —  +10.10%

● Lumentum Holdings Inc  —  +8.34%

● The J. M. Smucker Company  —  +5.29%

YEAR TO DATE

● STMicroelectronics NV ADR  —  +82.12%

● Arrow Electronics Inc  —  +81.05%

● Allegheny Technologies Incorporated  —  +76.42%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Warner Bros Discovery Inc  —  +139.62%

● AngloGold Ashanti plc  —  +113.82%

● Caterpillar Inc  —  +86.40%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include revenue growth over last year, positive EBITDA margin, and a diversified business.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

● MasTec Inc  —  -6.58%

● Ecopetrol SA ADR  —  -5.76%

● Unity Software Inc  —  -5.43%

YEAR TO DATE

● Roblox Corp  —  -52.78%

● Boston Scientific Corp  —  -50.28%

● Rollins Inc  —  -37.81%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Tencent Music Entertainment Group  —  -64.03%

● Boston Scientific Corp  —  -55.50%

● DraftKings Inc  —  -48.16%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, changing customer demand, and reputation or brand decline.

THE READ

Possible drivers: TTM Technologies leads the week (+10.10%) alongside Lumentum — both electronics and optical component makers, pointing to continued hardware demand. STMicroelectronics keeps its position among YTD leaders for a second straight week, this time alongside Arrow Electronics and Allegheny Technologies — a semiconductor and materials theme that’s held for over a month now. Laggards this week skew mixed — energy (Ecopetrol), software (Unity) — while Boston Scientific and Roblox continue their extended slides across YTD and YoY.

What it could mean: STMicroelectronics’ repeated presence on the YTD leaderboard over multiple weeks is one of the more durable trends we’ve tracked this quarter. Boston Scientific and Roblox showing up as laggards again — now a multi-week pattern for both — continues to point to healthcare devices and consumer tech as this cycle’s persistent weak spots.

02 · COMPANIES

Movers Below $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

● Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Class C-1 ADS (ADW)  —  +94.22%

● Kanzhun Ltd ADR  —  +18.12%

● Emergent Biosolutions Inc  —  +17.52%

YEAR TO DATE

● Roma Green Finance Limited Ordinary Shares  —  +464.37%

● Pulse Biosciences Inc  —  +258.01%

● Entravision Communications  —  +170.17%

YEAR ON YEAR

● NGL Energy Partners LP  —  +233.81%

● Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc  —  +186.16%

● PBF Energy Inc  —  +171.02%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include return on invested capital expansion, net margin expansion from last year, and operating margin expansion from last year.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

● SCHMID Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares  —  -35.16%

● Scribe Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock  —  -20.33%

● 360 Finance Inc  —  -19.33%

YEAR TO DATE

● Verra Mobility Corp  —  -81.15%

● Newegg Commerce Inc  —  -77.01%

● Regencell Bioscience Holdings Ltd  —  -74.20%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Verra Mobility Corp  —  -83.40%

● Maquia Capital Acquisition Corp  —  -81.06%

● ODDITY Tech Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares  —  -80.15%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, changing customer demand, and adverse capital markets access.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Polestar Automotive’s 94.22% weekly jump is this week’s single biggest small-cap mover, alongside Kanzhun and Emergent Biosolutions. Entravision Communications reappears on the YTD leaderboard (+170.17%) for the third time in as many weeks — a genuinely volatile stock this cycle. On the downside, Verra Mobility now sits at the top of both the YTD (-81.15%) and YoY (-83.40%) laggard lists — the worst possible combination, and its fourth straight week on this list.

What it could mean: Entravision’s repeated appearances — leader, laggard, leader again — make it one to watch rather than trust on any single week’s number. Verra Mobility’s consistent presence at the bottom of both windows, now four weeks running, looks like the most structural story in this dataset.

03 · INDUSTRIES

Industry Performance

Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.

▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

● Delivery & Mail  —  +3.47%

● Tobacco  —  +3.19%

● Intermediaries  —  +2.59%

YEAR TO DATE

● Operator  —  +127.30%

● Data Management  —  +67.08%

● Glass  —  +65.83%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Operator  —  +137.89%

● Glass  —  +116.59%

● Fabrication  —  +104.94%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include macroeconomic stability & growth, product/service characteristics, and capital markets access.

▼ LOWEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

● Exercise & Fitness  —  -15.34%

● Space Logistics  —  -8.81%

● eCommerce  —  -5.76%

YEAR TO DATE

● Government Contractor  —  -36.63%

● Children  —  -35.87%

● Recycling  —  -34.04%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Children  —  -46.70%

● Government Contractor  —  -37.42%

● Digital & Cryptocurrency  —  -36.49%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include competition & substitutes, reputation or brand decline, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Operator and Glass continue their run at the top of both the YTD and YoY tables — a trend that’s now held for over a month. Government Contractor and Children remain fixtures at the bottom of the same two windows. On the week, Exercise & Fitness posted the sharpest single-industry drop we’ve seen in a while (-15.34%), while Delivery & Mail and Tobacco led the modest weekly gains.

What it could mean: With Operator and Glass leading, and Government Contractor and Children lagging, across both YTD and YoY for multiple weeks running, these look like the more durable industry stories this quarter — worth watching for how long the pattern holds. Exercise & Fitness’s sharp weekly drop is worth a closer look, since nothing else in this week’s data points to an obvious sector-wide cause.

04 · INDICATORS

Where the Big Levels Sit

Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.

THE READ

Possible drivers: After last week’s sharp moves, several indicators cooled off — Gold pulled back 2.60% (though it remains Very High at 2.23 standard deviations above trend), and Bitcoin eased slightly (-0.64%) after its 24% surge the week before, still sitting at a High historical level. Brent crude dropped 6.46% on the week, reversing part of its recent gain, while the Hang Seng also pulled back 1.63%.

What it could mean: This week reads like a cooldown after last week’s sharp crypto and gold moves — neither reversed course, but both eased off their fastest pace. Crude’s pullback is worth watching alongside this week’s steep drop in Gasoline and Heating Oil below, which points to broader softness across the energy complex rather than a single indicator.

05 · WEEKLY MOVERS

Biggest Indicator Swings

▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK

● Oat · Average  —  +15.19%

● Wheat · Low  —  +12.12%

● Cocoa · High  —  +9.98%

● Baltic Dry · High  —  +9.36%

● Palladium · Average  —  +7.23%

▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK

● Coffee · High  —  -12.86%

● Gasoline · High  —  -8.96%

● Crude Oil (Brent) · Average  —  -6.46%

● Heating Oil · Very High  —  -5.62%

● Live Cattle · High  —  -5.03%

THE READ

Possible drivers: Agricultural commodities dominated the week’s gains — Oat, Wheat, and Cocoa all posted double-digit or near-double-digit moves, alongside a continued climb in the Baltic Dry index. On the downside, Coffee had its steepest drop in recent weeks (-12.86%), and the energy complex broadly softened — Gasoline, Crude Oil (Brent), and Heating Oil all fell together.

What it could mean: A broad agricultural rally alongside a broad energy pullback is an unusual combination worth watching — it doesn’t fit a single clean narrative like risk-on or risk-off. Coffee’s sharp reversal after recent strength is worth flagging on its own, since it’s one of the largest single-week moves in this dataset.

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Market Trend Monday is provided for information only and reflects what the data shows. It is not investment advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are drawn from Capnote’s data and methodology and may differ from other sources. Always do your own research.

The post The Cooldown Week: Crypto and Gold Ease Off as Wheat, Cocoa, and Oat Surge first appeared on Capnote.

Here’s where the key indicators sit versus their own history, plus the best and worst movers across companies and industries — and the risk and growth factors that may sit behind them. We don’t tell you what to do. We just show you what the data says, then close each section with a quick Read: the possible drivers, and what they could mean.

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01 · COMPANIES

Movers Above $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

● Merck & Company Inc  —  +12.60%

● Progressive Corp  —  +8.09%

● Targa Resources Inc  —  +7.72%

YEAR TO DATE

● Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated  —  +219.63%

● STMicroelectronics NV ADR  —  +84.95%

● Applied Materials Inc  —  +83.92%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Hecla Mining Company  —  +170.56%

● Vertiv Holdings Co  —  +106.31%

● Merck & Company Inc  —  +83.28%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include positive EBITDA margin, positive profit margin, and revenue growth over last year.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

● Nebius Group N.V.  —  -19.37%

● Semtech Corporation  —  -19.02%

● Applied Opt  —  -18.69%

YEAR TO DATE

● Applovin Corp  —  -50.08%

● Insulet Corporation  —  -47.24%

● Boston Scientific Corp  —  -46.32%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Roblox Corp  —  -66.35%

● Insulet Corporation  —  -55.17%

● Boston Scientific Corp  —  -52.03%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, supply chain disruptions, and adverse capital markets access.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Merck leads the week (+12.60%) and also lands on the YoY leaderboard (+83.28%) — a rare double appearance across windows. Progressive and Targa Resources round out the week’s gainers, while Corcept Therapeutics’ YTD standout (+219.63%) towers over the rest of the list. Laggards cluster around chip and tech-adjacent names on the week (Nebius, Semtech, Applied Opt), while medical devices continue their extended slide (Insulet and Boston Scientific both repeat across YTD and YoY).

What it could mean: Merck showing up in both the weekly and YoY windows suggests durable strength rather than a single-week pop — worth watching if it holds. Insulet and Boston Scientific’s now-repeated presence on both YTD and YoY laggard lists, alongside Roblox’s steep YoY decline, keeps pointing to healthcare devices and select consumer tech as this cycle’s weak spots.

02 · COMPANIES

Movers Below $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

● Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc  —  +78.46%

● Weave Communications Inc  —  +33.88%

● Nuvectis Pharma Inc  —  +23.05%

YEAR TO DATE

● Twist Bioscience Corp  —  +350.82%

● Anterix Inc  —  +317.44%

● Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc  —  +242.94%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Butterfly Network Inc  —  +587.93%

● PACS Group, Inc.  —  +278.71%

● Entravision Communications  —  +260.83%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include a diversified business, net margin expansion from last year, and positive EBITDA margin.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

● Klarna Group plc  —  -29.15%

● WhiteFiber, Inc. Ordinary Shares  —  -27.57%

● MaxLinear Inc  —  -21.70%

YEAR TO DATE

● Verra Mobility Corp  —  -80.17%

● Regencell Bioscience Holdings Ltd  —  -73.95%

● Anbio Biotechnology Class A Ordinary Shares  —  -73.71%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Anbio Biotechnology Class A Ordinary Shares  —  -85.31%

● Newegg Commerce Inc  —  -82.87%

● ODDITY Tech Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares  —  -81.91%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, reputation or brand decline, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Amylyx Pharmaceuticals shows up as both a 1-week leader (+78.46%) and a YTD leader (+242.94%) — consistent strength rather than a single spike. Entravision Communications reappears too, this time as a YoY leader (+260.83%) after last week’s sharp 1-week reversal, suggesting the longer-term trend is still intact even after that short-term dip. Verra Mobility remains a persistent YTD laggard for a third straight week, and Klarna’s steep 1-week drop (-29.15%) stands out as the week’s single biggest small-cap loss.

What it could mean: Amylyx’s consistency across both the weekly and YTD windows is a stronger signal than Entravision’s whipsaw last week — worth distinguishing between the two when reading the leaderboard. Verra Mobility’s continued presence as a laggard, now three weeks running, looks increasingly structural.

03 · INDUSTRIES

Industry Performance

Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.

▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

● Digital & Cryptocurrency  —  +6.90%

● Fabrication  —  +6.37%

● Government Contractor  —  +5.64%

YEAR TO DATE

● Operator  —  +133.19%

● Data Management  —  +66.04%

● Glass  —  +65.51%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Operator  —  +151.83%

● Space Logistics  —  +147.04%

● Glass  —  +125.05%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include macroeconomic stability & growth, product/service characteristics, and capital markets access.

▼ LOWEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

● Jewelry & Ornaments  —  -9.71%

● Manufacturing  —  -9.40%

● Glass  —  -8.04%

YEAR TO DATE

● Government Contractor  —  -37.25%

● Children  —  -37.04%

● Recycling  —  -31.53%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Children  —  -48.95%

● Digital & Cryptocurrency  —  -42.89%

● Government Contractor  —  -36.36%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include adverse capital markets access, macroeconomic decline or recession, and changing customer demand.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Government Contractor and Glass both flipped this week — Government Contractor jumped to a 1-week leader (+5.64%) despite remaining the worst YTD and YoY performer, and Glass dropped to a 1-week laggard (-8.04%) despite leading both the YTD and YoY tables. Digital & Cryptocurrency shows a similar split: a 1-week leader (+6.90%) but still the second-worst YoY performer. Operator, meanwhile, keeps its position at the top of both YTD and YoY without interruption.

What it could mean: These short-term reversals in otherwise consistent laggards (Government Contractor) and leaders (Glass) are a reminder that a single strong or weak week doesn’t undo a multi-month trend — Operator’s steady leadership across every window is the more durable signal here.

04 · INDICATORS

Where the Big Levels Sit

Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Bitcoin is this week’s standout — up 24.39% in a single week and now at a High historical level (0.88 standard deviations above trend), a sharp jump from its usual Average reading. Gold also extended further into Very High territory (2.43 SD, +6.42% on the week), and Brent crude moved from Average to a High historical level after a 6.04% weekly gain. The dollar, meanwhile, slipped to a Low reading for the first time in recent weeks, and the S&P 500 pulled back slightly (-1.43%) while remaining Very High overall.

What it could mean: Bitcoin’s move is large enough to be the headline story this week — a 24% weekly swing is well outside its usual range and worth watching for follow-through or a reversal. Gold, crude, and Bitcoin all climbing together while the dollar weakens is consistent with broad-based inflation-hedging and risk appetite running side by side.

05 · WEEKLY MOVERS

Biggest Indicator Swings

▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK

● ETH/USD · Average  —  +33.75%

● BTC/USD · High  —  +24.39%

● Platinum · Very High  —  +8.08%

● Switzerland 10Y · Average  —  +7.72%

● Turkey 10Y · High  —  +7.65%

▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK

● Gasoline · High  —  -5.08%

● Coffee · High  —  -3.90%

● Feeder Cattle · High  —  -3.42%

● Live Cattle · High  —  -2.56%

● Baltic Dry · High  —  -2.51%

THE READ

Possible drivers: Crypto dominated the week’s gains — ETH/USD (+33.75%) and BTC/USD (+24.39%) were both far ahead of every other mover, with Platinum, Switzerland 10Y, and Turkey 10Y rounding out the top five. On the downside, Gasoline, Coffee, and cattle prices (Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle) all pulled back, alongside a continued dip in the Baltic Dry index.

What it could mean: A simultaneous double-digit move in both ETH and BTC points to broad crypto-market strength rather than a single-coin story — worth watching whether this is the start of a longer run or a sharp, short-lived rally. The declines elsewhere were comparatively modest this week, which makes the crypto move stand out even more.

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The post Bitcoin’s 24% Breakout Week: What’s Driving the Surge — and What Else Moved first appeared on Capnote.

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01 · COMPANIES

Movers Above $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

• Hecla Mining Company  —  +17.32%
• Corning Incorporated  —  +13.58%
• Marvell Technology Group Ltd  —  +12.51%

YEAR TO DATE

• Marvell Technology Group Ltd  —  +145.77%
• Cognex Corporation  —  +81.17%
• Carpenter Technology Corporation  —  +68.03%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Ciena Corp  —  +334.07%
• Teradyne Inc  —  +257.90%
• Roivant Sciences Ltd  —  +214.35%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include positive EBITDA margin, revenue growth over last year, and a diversified business.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

• DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc  —  -21.88%
• UL Solutions Inc  —  -13.60%
• Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.  —  -10.46%

YEAR TO DATE

• Intuit Inc  —  -48.81%
• Zoetis Inc  —  -41.94%
• Futu Holdings Ltd  —  -37.81%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Roblox Corp  —  -70.66%
• Zoetis Inc  —  -50.32%
• Xpeng Inc  —  -38.26%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, macroeconomic decline or recession, and adverse capital markets access.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Weekly leaders lean mining and industrial materials (Hecla Mining, Corning) alongside a semiconductor name (Marvell) that also tops the YTD list. YoY leaders — Ciena, Teradyne, Roivant — point to networking and test equipment alongside a biotech re-rating. Laggards cluster around healthcare services (DaVita, Zoetis) and a large software name sliding YTD (Intuit), with Roblox’s steep YoY decline standing out.

What it could mean: Marvell sitting atop both the weekly and YTD windows suggests durable strength rather than a one-week spike, echoing broader semiconductor and AI-infrastructure demand. Zoetis and DaVita both showing up as laggards more than once hints at margin or demand pressure in healthcare worth a closer look.

02 · COMPANIES

Movers Below $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

• Latham Group Inc  —  +36.19%
• Ethos Technologies Inc. Class A Common Stock  —  +35.75%
• 3D Systems Corporation  —  +35.23%

YEAR TO DATE

• Digital Turbine Inc  —  +196.44%
• Liquidia Technologies Inc  —  +190.13%
• Methode Electronics Inc  —  +158.07%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Climb Bio Inc  —  +732.04%
• Twist Bioscience Corp  —  +361.32%
• Acm Research Inc  —  +244.47%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include positive EBITDA margin, a diversified business, and positive profit margin.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

• Suja Life, Inc. Class A Common Stock  —  -42.07%
• USANA Health Sciences Inc  —  -32.20%
• Limbach Holdings Inc  —  -30.62%

YEAR TO DATE

• Verra Mobility Corp  —  -76.08%
• Regencell Bioscience Holdings Ltd  —  -72.49%
• Upstream Bio, Inc.  —  -70.92%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Maquia Capital Acquisition Corp  —  -81.06%
• Anbio Biotechnology Class A Ordinary Shares  —  -80.77%
• Verra Mobility Corp  —  -78.58%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include macroeconomic decline or recession, competition & substitutes, and reputation or brand decline.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Small-cap leaders skew industrial and consumer on the week (Latham Group’s pools business, 3D Systems), while YTD and YoY stay dominated by biotech and tech names with binary catalysts (Digital Turbine, Liquidia, Climb Bio at +732%, Twist Bioscience, Acm Research). Verra Mobility reappears as a laggard across both the YTD (-76.08%) and YoY (-78.58%) windows, this time with no weekly bounce to offset it.

What it could mean: Climb Bio’s 732% YoY move is one of the largest in this dataset and is a reminder that outsized small-cap gains are usually event-driven rather than trend-driven. Verra Mobility’s now-consistent weakness across every window makes it look more like a structural story than a temporary dip.

03 · INDUSTRIES

Industry Performance

Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.

▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

• Pets  —  +20.04%
• Space Logistics  —  +15.20%
• Glass  —  +13.44%

YEAR TO DATE

• Operator  —  +148.40%
• Data Management  —  +70.93%
• Glass  —  +70.44%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Operator  —  +189.15%
• Glass  —  +132.39%
• Space Logistics  —  +121.15%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include product/service characteristics, strong reputation & brand, and capital markets access.

▼ LOWEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

• Petroleum  —  -8.96%
• Maintenance & Repair  —  -5.46%
• Refining & Smelting  —  -3.87%

YEAR TO DATE

• Recycling  —  -35.66%
• Government Contractor  —  -34.61%
• Digital & Cryptocurrency  —  -32.65%

YEAR ON YEAR

• Digital & Cryptocurrency  —  -45.01%
• Children  —  -41.78%
• Recycling  —  -41.71%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include reputation or brand decline, adverse capital markets access, and changing customer demand.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Glass shows up as a leader across all three windows this week — 1-week, YTD, and YoY — a shift from the whipsaw pattern seen recently into more sustained strength. Operator and Space Logistics also repeat across multiple windows. On the downside, Petroleum itself is now the worst-performing industry on the week, a reversal from its usual role driving the headlines.

What it could mean: Glass’s consistency across all three timeframes is a stronger signal than a single-window spike and worth a closer look at what’s behind it. Petroleum sliding at the industry level even as broader commodity data holds up suggests supply, not demand, may be the softer side of that story.

04 · INDICATORS

Where the Big Levels Sit

Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Gold jumped to Very High this week — 2.20 standard deviations above trend after an 8.70% weekly move — alongside the S&P 500’s continued climb to 2.59 SD above its 5-year average. The 10Y Treasury eased slightly (-1.88% on the week) even as it stays High, and Brent crude dropped nearly 9% for the week while its historical level remains Average.

What it could mean: Gold and equities both pushing higher together, now joined by a softer crude price, is an unusual combination — more often read as risk-on sentiment layered with continued inflation-hedging than one clean narrative. Worth watching whether gold’s move above the Very High threshold holds or mean-reverts next week.

05 · WEEKLY MOVERS

Biggest Indicator Swings

▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK

• Sugar · Low  —  +12.48%
• Baltic Dry · High  —  +12.12%
• Silver · High  —  +10.14%
• Milk · Low  —  +9.64%
• Gold · Very High  —  +8.70%

▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK

• Gasoline · Average  —  -15.74%
• Switzerland 10Y · Average  —  -13.48%
• Crude Oil (WTI) · Average  —  -8.99%
• Crude Oil (Brent) · Average  —  -8.78%
• Heating Oil · High  —  -5.81%

THE READ

Possible drivers: Energy dominated the week’s losses — Gasoline, both crude oil benchmarks, and Heating Oil all fell together, a broad-based pullback rather than a single contract quirk. On the gains side, Sugar, Silver, and Gold all moved higher, alongside a sharp jump in the Baltic Dry index, which tracks shipping rates.

What it could mean: A simultaneous drop across the whole energy complex often points to a supply or demand shift rather than noise in one market — worth checking against this week’s Petroleum industry weakness above. The Baltic Dry jump is worth watching too, since it’s often read as an early signal on global trade activity.

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The post Gold Breaks Out, Oil Breaks Down: Inside a Week of Diverging Signals first appeared on Capnote.

01 · TRENDING

What the News Is Tagging

Most frequent tags produced by our algorithms across top-tier U.S. news sources.

1 WEEK

Petroleum · USA · Geopolitics · Artificial Intelligence · Software

YEAR TO DATE

Petroleum · USA · Geopolitics · Security & Weapons · Nigeria

YEAR ON YEAR

USA · Geopolitics · Petroleum · Nigeria · Financial Services

THE READ

Possible drivers: Petroleum leads across all three windows, but this week it’s paired with Artificial Intelligence and Software rather than just Security & Weapons — a short-term tilt toward tech-and-energy headlines sitting alongside the usual conflict-driven story. Nigeria’s continued presence in the YTD and YoY windows keeps the crude-exporter thread alive even as the weekly conversation leans toward chips and software.

What it could mean: A news mix spanning energy and AI infrastructure at once often reflects a market weighing inflation risk and a still-active capex cycle simultaneously. Worth watching whether the AI/software tags persist or the conversation reverts to the geopolitics-heavy pattern that dominates YTD and YoY.

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02 · COMPANIES

Movers Above $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

● Garmin Ltd  —  +21.31%

● NetEase Inc  —  +8.42%

● Datadog Inc  —  +7.02%

YEAR TO DATE

● Micron Technology Inc  —  +161.04%

● Datadog Inc  —  +100.48%

● Aramark Holdings  —  +56.30%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Johnson & Johnson  —  +58.86%

● Permian Resources Corporation  —  +56.62%

● Ovintiv Inc  —  +56.01%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include positive EBITDA margin, positive profit margin, and return on invested capital expansion.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

● Textron Inc  —  -11.32%

● ON Semiconductor Corporation  —  -9.16%

● United Parcel Service Inc  —  -8.36%

YEAR TO DATE

● CoStar Group Inc  —  -57.12%

● Boston Scientific Corp  —  -51.26%

● Insulet Corporation  —  -40.66%

YEAR ON YEAR

● CoStar Group Inc  —  -70.40%

● Intuit Inc  —  -59.54%

● HubSpot Inc  —  -54.71%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, adverse capital markets access, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

THE READ

Possible drivers: The 1-week leaders skew hardware and connected-tech (Garmin, Datadog), while the YTD table pairs a semiconductor name (Micron) with steady, cash-generating operators (Datadog, Aramark). Laggards lean industrial and semis on the short list (Textron, ON Semiconductor, UPS), but healthcare and real-estate-data names dominate YTD and YoY (CoStar, Boston Scientific, Intuit, HubSpot).

What it could mean: Chip strength sitting next to logistics-adjacent weakness suggests the market is still working out where AI-driven demand actually lands. CoStar’s persistent slide across both the YTD and YoY windows looks like a company-specific story rather than a sector-wide one.

03 · COMPANIES

Movers Below $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

● Verra Mobility Corp  —  +25.93%

● Itron Inc  —  +19.99%

● The Cheesecake Factory  —  +19.38%

YEAR TO DATE

● Immunitybio Inc  —  +259.54%

● 10X Genomics Inc  —  +179.59%

● Twist Bioscience Corp  —  +178.41%

YEAR ON YEAR

● ViaSat Inc  —  +364.05%

● Anterix Inc  —  +322.34%

● Butterfly Network Inc  —  +315.03%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include revenue growth over last year, positive EBITDA margin, and a diversified business.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

● Bandwidth Inc  —  -34.43%

● Coincheck Group N.V. Ordinary Shares  —  -29.78%

● Polibeli Group Ltd Class A Ordinary Shares  —  -26.04%

YEAR TO DATE

● Newegg Commerce Inc  —  -83.41%

● enGene Holdings Inc  —  -79.77%

● Verra Mobility Corp  —  -78.26%

YEAR ON YEAR

● CEA Industries Inc  —  -88.81%

● ODDITY Tech Ltd Class A Ordinary Shares  —  -82.20%

● Maquia Capital Acquisition Corp  —  -81.06%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, changing customer demand, and reputation or brand decline.

THE READ

Possible drivers: The small-cap leaderboard is dominated by clinical-stage and biotech names with binary catalysts (Immunitybio, 10X Genomics, Twist Bioscience, ViaSat, Anterix, Butterfly Network), the kind of moves a single trial readout or contract win can trigger. Verra Mobility stands out for showing up as both a 1-week leader (+25.93%) and a YTD laggard (-78.26%) — a reminder that a short bounce doesn’t offset a longer slide.

What it could mean: Dispersion below $10B remains extreme, with some of the largest gains and losses in the whole dataset sitting in this bucket — index-level small-cap moves are likely masking a lot of name-specific volatility, which argues for diligence over broad conclusions.

04 · INDUSTRIES

Industry Performance

Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.

▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

● Toys  —  +12.53%

● Transportation (passenger)  —  +9.66%

● Children  —  +9.12%

YEAR TO DATE

● Operator  —  +158.45%

● Data Management  —  +61.61%

● Printing & Publishing  —  +49.08%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Operator  —  +195.97%

● Data Management  —  +93.44%

● Glass  —  +88.47%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include macroeconomic stability & growth, product/service characteristics, and capital markets access.

▼ LOWEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

● Glass  —  -15.20%

● HVAC & Refrigeration  —  -9.36%

● Energy Storage  —  -8.75%

YEAR TO DATE

● Recycling  —  -41.35%

● Government Contractor  —  -35.66%

● Intermediaries  —  -34.78%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Digital & Cryptocurrency  —  -52.93%

● Recycling  —  -42.72%

● Children  —  -33.13%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include competition & substitutes, reputation or brand decline, and adverse capital markets access.

THE READ

Possible drivers: Glass shows a sharp whipsaw — the worst 1-week performer (-15.20%) but a top-three YoY name (+88.47%) — and Children swings from a 1-week leader (+9.12%) to a YoY laggard (-33.13%). Operator and Data Management stay anchored at the top of both the YTD and YoY tables, echoing the ongoing data-infrastructure theme.

What it could mean: Industries appearing at both extremes depending on the window are usually ones where a handful of market-cap-weighted names swing the whole group. Operator and Data Management’s consistency across timeframes looks like the more durable trend here.

05 · INDICATORS

Where the Big Levels Sit

Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.

THE READ

Possible drivers: The S&P 500 is the most stretched reading on the board, sitting 2.38 standard deviations above its 5-year average ($7,489.72 vs. $4,979.55), with the US 10Y Treasury (1.20 SD) and gold (1.88 SD) also elevated. Rich equities and rich gold moving together again points to risk-on momentum layered over inflation and uncertainty hedging. The dollar and Bitcoin are the only readings sitting at Average.

What it could mean: With the benchmark equity index this far above trend and yields elevated too, the bar risky assets need to clear to justify current pricing is high. Elevated doesn’t mean overvalued, but it’s a prompt to look at what’s supporting current levels rather than assume they simply extend.

06 · WEEKLY MOVERS

Biggest Indicator Swings

▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK

● Milk · Low  —  +11.34%

● Orange Juice · Low  —  +8.18%

● Turkey 10Y · High  —  +7.67%

● Platinum · High  —  +3.90%

● Hang Seng · High  —  +3.69%

▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK

● Switzerland 10Y · Average  —  -11.60%

● Gasoline · High  —  -6.61%

● Lean Hogs · Average  —  -6.37%

● Wheat · Low  —  -5.72%

● Soybeans · Low  —  -5.27%

THE READ

Possible drivers: Agricultural softs led the week’s percentage gains off Low bases (Milk, Orange Juice), alongside moves in Turkey 10Y and Platinum. On the downside, Switzerland 10Y’s steep drop and a Gasoline pullback stand out, with broad softness across Wheat and Soybeans.

What it could mean: Large percentage swings on Low-level indicators like Milk and Orange Juice can reflect a thin base more than a structural shift — worth checking absolute levels before reading too much into the percentage move. Switzerland 10Y’s swing is large enough to flag for anyone tracking European rate divergence.

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Market Trend Monday is provided for information only and reflects what the data shows. It is not investment advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are drawn from Capnote’s data and methodology and may differ from other sources. Always do your own research.

The post Oil, AI and a Very Stretched S&P: What This Week’s Data Is Really Saying first appeared on Capnote.